QQ vs AK: is it really a coin flip?

Pocket queens beat ace-king about 56% of the time all-in preflop, so the famous coin flip actually has a heavy side.

56.1%

QQ

vs

43.9%

AK

Favorite

QQ · 56.1%

Underdog

AK · 43.9%

Odds

~1.3-to-1

Matchup type

Pair against big cards

By suits

QQ vs AKs: 54%QQ vs AKo: 56.8%

Queens against ace-king is the reference race in poker, and it is not quite fair. Six clean outs twice, plus straight and flush chances, get the ace-king to roughly 44%, but the pair is in front the whole way and wins every runout that blanks. That 56 to 44 edge sounds small until you play it a hundred times, where it is the difference between a winning night and a losing one. The practical takeaway: with queens you should usually welcome this race, and with ace-king you need either fold equity or a pot already sweetened to make the flip worth taking.

Quick tip: AK all-in is fine when the raise itself can win the pot. Called flips are where the 44% side bleeds.

All numbers are all-in preflop equity vs one opponent, computed by the Poker Shark equity engine from the full 169 by 169 hand matrix, weighted across suited and offsuit combos.