AK vs 22: which side of the coin flip wins?

The smallest pair against the biggest cards is the closest of the classic races. The deuces are ahead until the board says otherwise, but almost any ace or king in five cards flips it, and ace-king also barrels into straights and flushes the deuces cannot see. Suited ace-king nudges the whole thing to within a whisker of dead even. The deep lesson is about the word ahead: deuces are a favorite here by two points, yet nobody in their right mind wants the deuce side for stacks, because the hands that call are either the same race or a bigger pair that leaves deuces under 20%. Equity is matchup by matchup; ranges decide whether the shove was good.

Quick tip: Winning a flip is not a strategy. If your all-in is only ever called by races and better, tighten the shove.

All numbers are all-in preflop equity vs one opponent, computed by the Poker Shark equity engine from the full 169 by 169 hand matrix, weighted across suited and offsuit combos.