Do you have the odds to call with a gutshot?

A gutshot has 4 outs: 8.5% on the turn, 8.7% on the river, and 16.5% by the river when both cards are guaranteed.

4 Outs

8.5% Hit on the next card (flop)

8.7% Hit on the river (turn)

16.5% By the river, both cards guaranteed

Table shortcut, outs × 2 for each card you see: 4 × 2 = 8% for a one-card call, and 4 × 4 = 16% when this flop call guarantees both cards. Both land within 0.7 points of the exact 8.5% and 16.5%, close enough to use at the table.

One-card direct odds assume you fold after a miss and pay no further bets. Use by-the-river odds when this call guarantees both cards, such as an all-in or a guaranteed free river.

Only four cards complete a gutshot. With chips behind you hit the next card 8.5% of the time from the flop and 8.7% from the turn, which pays for a bet of about a tenth of the pot. Even all-in, the 16.5% figure only covers a quarter-pot bet. A gutshot continues on implied odds, or because it adds to a hand that already has other equity, like overcards or a backdoor flush draw.

On one-card direct odds, 4 outs can call a bet up to about 10% of the pot on the flop and up to about 11% of the pot on the turn on direct odds alone. When a flop call guarantees both cards, including all-in or a free river, both cards count, and then 4 outs can call a bet up to about 25% of the pot. Anything bigger has to be paid back by what you win when you hit.

Quick tip: A gutshot hits the next card 8.5% of the time. On its own it calls only tiny bets.