Running 1,000 bankroll paths over a year at your pace
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Bankroll benchmarks: what you need for less than 5% risk of ruin
These reference numbers come from the same simulation engine as the calculator above. Your real answer depends on your own win rate and pace, so plug in your numbers for a personal verdict. Click a stake for its full bankroll guide.
Online cash games
Assumes 75 bb/100 standard deviation over 100,000 hands.
The calculator runs 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of a year of play at your pace, using your win rate and variance to model what can happen to your bankroll.
Risk of ruin is the probability that your bankroll reaches zero. It depends on your win rate, variance, and how much money you have relative to the stakes you play. This calculator simulates 1,000 bankroll paths over a year at your pace to find your exact risk.
A common guideline is 20-30 buy-ins for your stake level, but the real answer depends on your win rate and variance. A 5 bb/100 winner at 50NL needs a different bankroll than a 2 bb/100 winner. The calculator gives you your specific number for less than 5% risk of ruin.
At $1/$2 live a standard 100bb buy-in is $200, so the classic 20-30 buy-in guideline puts you at $4,000-$6,000. Our simulations say a solid live winner needs about $2,800 for less than 5% risk of ruin over roughly two years of weekly play. Switch the calculator to Live and enter your own numbers for your exact answer.
Most online 6-max players sit between 60-90 bb/100, and live games tend to run higher because pools play looser. If you don't track it, pick the playing style that fits you under 'I know my exact numbers': tight 65, typical 75, aggressive 90. The calculator defaults to a sensible value for your game type.
The stake ladder in the full analysis shows when you have 30 buy-ins at the next level, a conservative threshold that balances growth with risk. The calculator also shows how many hands you need to grind at your current stake to reach it.
Variance measures how much your results swing from session to session. Even a winning player can lose money over thousands of hands. The chart of 20 possible futures shows how wild the swings get, even when the math is in your favor.
Downswings of 30,000-100,000 hands are normal for winning online players. The full analysis shows your 95th percentile worst downswing and converts it to weeks at your stated pace so you know what to prepare for.
The win rate sensitivity table in the full analysis shows how your risk changes if your true win rate is 1-3 bb/100 different from what you think. Small samples mean your measured win rate can be significantly off from reality.
At 100NL (big blind $1.00) a 100bb buy-in is $100. Our simulations put a solid 5 bb/100 winner at about $1,600 for less than 5% risk of ruin over 100,000 hands. A smaller win rate needs meaningfully more. Enter your numbers above for your personal verdict.
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