Poker Shark
How much bankroll do you need for 200NL?
A solid winner (5bb/100) needs about $3,200 (16 buy-ins) for 200NL with less than 5% risk of ruin. A modest winner (2bb/100) needs about $6,200 (31 buy-ins), and at this stake the modest number is the one to respect.
Solid winner (5 bb/100)
16 buy-ins of $200
Modest winner (2 bb/100)
31 buy-ins of $200
For less than 5% risk of ruin over 100,000 hands at 75 bb/100 standard deviation. Numbers come from the same Monte Carlo engine as the calculator.
200NL is the first stake where you should plan with the pessimistic column. Win rates compress as you move up: the pool is mostly regulars, the recreational players get shared more ways, and a player who crushed 100NL for 5bb/100 often lands closer to 2bb/100 here, at least for the first stretch. Rolling for $6,200 instead of $3,200 prices that reality in.
The absolute swings deserve respect too. A modest winner's 95th percentile downswing at 200NL is about $7,800 from peak to trough. That is a used-car-sized hole in your net worth while you are playing fine, and it is exactly the stretch where underrolled players start forcing action to get unstuck.
The standard structure for arriving here is a shot, not a residency: move up with a defined budget of buy-ins, keep your 100NL roll intact underneath it, and let the shot fail cheaply if the first sample goes badly. The players who stick at 200NL are usually on their second or third visit.
Opens the calculator preloaded for 200NL. Adjust your bankroll and win rate for a personal verdict.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many buy-ins do I need for 200NL?
Our simulations say 16 buy-ins ($3,200) at a solid 5bb/100, and 31 buy-ins ($6,200) at a modest 2bb/100. Because win rates compress when you move up, plan around the bigger number until 200NL results prove otherwise.
Should I use a stop-loss when I take my 200NL shot?
A shot budget works better than a daily stop-loss: commit a fixed number of buy-ins (3 to 5 is common) to the move-up attempt, and drop back to 100NL without negotiation if it is gone. The point is to make the decision before the session, not during it.
Why do win rates drop at 200NL?
More of the pool is professional, the weakest players are fought over harder, and your edges per hand shrink even when your play does not. Expect your first 200NL sample to undershoot your 100NL rate, and size your roll so that this is a budgeting fact rather than an emergency.
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