Bankroll Risk Analyzer

Risk of ruin is the probability that your bankroll reaches zero. It depends on your win rate, variance (standard deviation), and how much money you have relative to the stakes you play. This tool simulates 1,000 bankroll paths to calculate your exact risk.

A common guideline is 20-30 buy-ins for your stake level, but the real answer depends on your win rate and variance. A 5 bb/100 winner at 50NL needs a different bankroll than a 2 bb/100 winner. Use the simulator to find your specific number for less than 5% risk of ruin.

Most online 6-max players have a standard deviation between 60-90 bb/100. Tighter players tend toward the lower end, aggressive players toward the higher end. If you don't know yours, 75 bb/100 is a reasonable default.

The stake ladder shows when you have 30 buy-ins at the next level — a conservative threshold that balances growth with risk. The tool also shows how many hands you need to grind at your current stake to reach that threshold.

Variance measures how much your results swing from session to session. Even a winning player can lose money over thousands of hands due to variance. The variance chart shows 20 simulated bankroll paths so you can see how wild the swings get — even when the math is in your favor.

Downswings of 30,000-100,000 hands are normal for winning players. The tool calculates your 95th percentile worst downswing duration — the longest cold streak you should expect. It converts this to sessions and weeks so you know what to prepare for.

The win rate sensitivity table shows how your risk of ruin changes if your true win rate is 1-3 bb/100 different from what you think. Small sample sizes mean your measured win rate could be significantly off from reality.

At 100NL (big blind $1.00), a 100bb buy-in is $100. For 30 buy-ins you need $3,000. But whether $3,000 is enough depends on your win rate and variance — plug in your actual numbers to see your real risk of ruin at that stake.